As we head into 2026, one question we’re hearing a lot is: “Is this the year to make a move in Ventura County?”

The short answer: 2026 is shaping up to be a more balanced, but still competitive market locally. Mortgage rates are expected to stay in the 6% range, inventory should loosen slightly, and Ventura County’s coastal appeal and quality of life will continue to support steady demand.

Below is our outlook for what to expect this year, based on current data, statewide forecasts, and what we’re seeing on the ground across Ventura, Oxnard, Camarillo, Conejo Valley, Ojai, and beyond.

1. Where the Ventura County market is starting from

Ventura County enters 2026 on a solid footing:

• Recent data shows Ventura County median home prices hovering in the low-to-mid $800,000s, with year-over-year gains in the mid-single-digit range, depending on city and property type.
  
  

• Inventory has improved from the ultra-tight pandemic lows, but we’re still well below a “normal” balanced market. Recent reports show roughly 2–3 months of supply, versus 4–6 months, which would indicate a true balance between buyers and sellers.
  

In practical terms, that means:

• Well-priced, well-presented homes are still selling quickly, often with multiple strong offers.
  
  

• Properties that are dated or mispriced are sitting longer and needing price reductions.
  

So we’re not in the frenzy of 2021–2022, but we’re also nowhere near a buyer’s market.

2. Mortgage rates: likely to hover around 6%

No prediction matters more for buyers and sellers than mortgage rates.

• Fannie Mae’s March 2025 Economic & Housing Outlook projects 30-year mortgage rates ending 2025 and 2026 around 6.3% and 6.2%, respectively. Fannie Mae
  
  

• The Mortgage Bankers Association expects rates to stay in a 6–6.5% band for the next several years, pointing to a “slow thaw” rather than a dramatic drop. Mortgage Professional

What that means for Ventura County in 2026:

• Buyers waiting for 4–5% rates are likely to keep waiting.
  
  

• We may see small dips at times, but the consensus is for “higher for longer” compared to pre-2020.
  
  

• Sellers holding 2–3% mortgages will still be hesitant to move—one reason inventory won’t flood the market.
  

This creates a stable but rate-sensitive environment: small changes in rates can temporarily move demand up or down, especially for first-time buyers.

3. Home prices: steady, not spiking

Statewide, the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) is forecasting continued moderate home price growth after a slight dip in 2023 and a rebound in 2024–2025. Their 2025 outlook called for a 6.2% increase in the statewide median home price, reflecting ongoing demand and limited supply.

Ventura County tends to track slightly above statewide averages because of:

• Coastal proximity
  
  

• Strong commuter ties to Los Angeles
  
  

• Limited buildable land, especially near the beach and hillsides
  

Our 2026 expectation:

• 3–5% price growth countywide for well-located homes
  
  

• Stronger price resilience in:
  
  

  • Coastal Ventura / Pierpont / Ventura Keys
    
    

  • Oxnard beach and harbor areas
    
    

  • Conejo Valley (Thousand Oaks, Newbury Park, Westlake Village portion in Ventura County)
    
    

• Softer performance on:
  
  

  • Busy streets
    
    

  • Overpriced fixer-uppers
    
    

  • Homes with unresolved insurance / fire-zone challenges
    

We do not see strong evidence of a broad price correction in Ventura County under current conditions.

4. Inventory: more choice, but still not “plenty.”

National outlooks suggest inventory will gradually loosen as rates stabilize and more owners decide to move despite giving up low mortgages. Mortgage Professional

Locally, we expect:

• More move-up and move-down listings from long-time owners who are ready for a life change (downsizing, relocating closer to family, or cashing out equity).
  
  

• Continued flow of estate, trust, and inherited sales, especially in Midtown Ventura, older Oxnard neighborhoods, and established Conejo communities.
  
  

• Modest relief from new construction and infill, but the reality is that major new housing tracts are limited by geography, community constraints, and regulation.
  
  

Bottom line:

• Buyers will have more choices than in the last few years, but the best homes will still move quickly.
  
  

• Sellers will still benefit from low competition—especially if they list clean, move-in-ready properties.
  

5. Neighborhood micro-trends to watch

Different sub-markets in Ventura County will likely perform differently in 2026:

Ventura (Hillside, Midtown, Pierpont, Keys)

• Hillside & view homes: Strong demand continues for ocean and island views; buyers are willing to pay a premium for newer construction, remodeled homes, and better fire/insurance profiles.
  
  

• Midtown: Continues to be a sweet spot for character homes near hospitals, schools, and downtown—especially updated bungalows and farmhouses.
  
  

• Pierpont & Ventura Keys: Beach and harbor proximity keeps these areas highly desirable for second-home buyers and people relocating from LA and the Bay Area.
  
  

Oxnard & Channel Islands Harbor

• Oxnard Shores & Hollywood Beach: Still attractive to buyers priced out of Santa Barbara and Malibu, looking for walk-to-sand lifestyle at a relative discount.
  
  

• Harbor & marina townhomes and condos: Appeal to boaters, retirees, and “lock-and-leave” owners; pricing should remain steady with modest upside as waterfront remains limited.
  
  

Camarillo & Conejo Valley (Thousand Oaks, Newbury Park, Westlake portion)

• Family neighborhoods with good schools will remain in high demand.
  
  

• Single-story homes and properties with usable yards will continue to command premiums as multigenerational living and aging-in-place stay top of mind.
  
  

Ojai Valley & rural properties

• Ojai, Upper Ojai, Somis, Santa Paula hillsides, and agricultural land should see ongoing interest from buyers seeking space, lifestyle properties, and gentleman’s ranch / equestrian potential.
  
  

• Well-maintained ranches and income-producing orchards remain attractive investment plays, especially for buyers looking to diversify beyond traditional residential rentals.
  
  

6. Insurance, wildfire risk, and climate: still part of the conversation

One reality we can’t ignore in 2026: insurance and wildfire risk.

• Several large insurers have pulled back or paused new home policies in parts of California due to wildfire and cost concerns, pushing more owners onto the higher-cost FAIR Plan.
  
  

• Coastal and lower-risk zones in Ventura County remain more insurable, but hillside and wildland–urban interface areas may see higher premiums and stricter underwriting.
  
  

For buyers and sellers, this means:

• Insurance quotes need to be part of the upfront analysis, not an afterthought.
  
  

• Homes with fire-hardening, defensible space, and updated roofs/electrical may see a competitive advantage.
  
  

• Sellers in higher-risk zones should be prepared with recent insurance history and, where possible, mitigation documentation.
  
  

7. What this means if you’re thinking of selling in 2026

If you own in Ventura County and are considering selling this year:

• You’re likely to benefit from:
  
  

• Still-limited inventory
  
  

• Serious, qualified buyers who have adjusted to 6% rates
  
  

• Continued appeal of coastal Southern California lifestyle
  
  

• You’ll need to be strategic about:
  
  

• Pricing – Buyers are well-educated and quick to pass on overpriced homes.
  
  

• Presentation – Clean, staged, and move-in-ready homes consistently earn the strongest offers.
  
  

• Timing – There may be micro-windows of stronger demand if/when rates dip during the year.
  
  

For many sellers—especially those:

• Sitting on significant equity,
  
  

• Downsizing,
  
  

• Relocating closer to family, or
  
  

• Consolidating from multiple properties—
  
  

2026 can be an excellent year to act, provided the strategy, pricing, and marketing are aligned with current realities.

8. What this means if you’re planning to buy

For buyers, 2026 in Ventura County will likely feel very different from the peak-frenzy years:

• You may not be competing with 15–20 offers, but you will still compete for the best homes.
  
  

• You should plan around rates in the 6% range, with the possibility of refinancing later if meaningful drops occur.
  
  

• There will be more opportunities in:
  
  

• Homes needing cosmetic updates
  
  

• Properties that have sat due to mispricing
  
  

• Niche segments like small multi-family, condos, or homes slightly off the beach but still coastal-adjacent
  
  

The upside:
If your time horizon is 5+ years, and you’re buying in a solid neighborhood with strong fundamentals, 2026 can be a smart entry point—especially if you’re selective and patient.

9. Our take: 2026 is about strategic moves, not fear or FOMO

In Ventura County, 2026 is unlikely to be defined by extremes. Instead, we expect:

• Steady prices, modest appreciation
  
  

• Rates that stay higher than pre-2020, but lower than 2023 peaks
  
  

• Slightly more inventory, but continued competition for quality homes
  
  

In other words, it’s a year for thoughtful, strategic decisions—not panic and not “wait forever.”

If you’re considering a move—buying, selling, exchanging, or repositioning your portfolio in Ventura County—we’re here to talk through what these trends mean for your specific situation.